Of all the important skills in trading, survival is number one. For unless we make it through the inevitable bad times, we won't be around to capitalize on the good. I've laid out some trading account guidelines that specify the account size required to conduct various commodity futures and option trading activities. Stick within these guidelines and you will have an edge on most of the commodity trading public.
Here are my general money management guidelines to improve your chances of commodity market survival and trading success:
$5,000 ACCOUNT
Risk no more than 10% max ($500)
A $5,000 account is really too small to follow these guidelines exactly, so your risk will be higher. You must really pick and choose your markets and entry points carefully - until the account grows to $10,000.
OPTIONS:
Buy one $500 option for each unrelated market. Buying one soybean, one soybean oil and one soybean meal is like buying three soybean options in the first place - unacceptable. Getting a good option for only $500 is not easy to do sometimes since we like to buy plenty of time and have the market reasonably close to the strike price for the best chance of profit.
With a $5,000 account we should not worried about making big percentage gains as much as participating in a reasonable move with an option delta of at least 0.6 or more. Buying multiple cheap commodity options far out-of-the-money is a suckers game over the long haul. Many times the futures contract market move will take place but we will still lose in the commodity option.
Stay as close to the money as possible (strike price close to the market price) to better simulate a futures contract and the real cash market. If the trade does not work out according to the Timeline forecast, it may be prudent to take a loss and preserve some of the option premium. Bear in mind we generally like to consider the total option premium as the stop loss order. Also, read the Thomas Swing Method lesson to give you an idea of how to trade the swings and do commodity option "granting.
FUTURES CONTRACTS
The challenge with a $5,000 account is that some futures contact margins can be $2,000 and more. This will mean that only two different positions can be put on at one time, which is plenty for a $5,000 account. But if the TimeLine has a signal in four different markets at once, we will have to decide which two markets are best. This is usually just a guess, since we try to take all high probability commodity trades and never really know which ones will work out in the end. No one really does. Out of twenty-two markets you go with the chosen two to four and let them unfold.
Mother Probability is what decides the outcome. In addition, if we risk only $500 for each futures trade, there is not much price fluctuation room for some commodity markets. It may be enough for low priced corn and a few other normally quiet markets, but not enough for the majority. For example, many of the currencies have $1,000 swings each day.
For an overnight trade, placing a stop just $500 away from entry is like giving money away. The only alternative is to risk more, like $1000, but then we are risking 20% a trade and need only five losers in a row to wipe out the account. See the problem here? Because of this, for longer-term moves, a $5,000 account may be better suited for option spreads or even writing far out-of-the-money options. In other words, try to fund the account to a starting value of $10,000, if possible.
WRITING OPTIONS:
I personally believe one of the better methods for success with a $5,000 account may be writing commodity options (selling options). When writing options we have to be satisfied with smaller gains as a result of selling them far out-of-the-money, taking in $200-$300 each time. It will depend greatly on the particular market. Three hundred dollars every two months equals $1800 a year. This is a 36% return on a $5,000 account. Be sure to set realistic goals.
Once the account is built up, the numbers can be increased. As they say, after a period of success, you can always add a zero" to the quantity. Each option that is sold should be treated as if it were a commodity futures contract for risk and margin requirements. As long as the premium does expand past a $500 loss, we can continue to hold the option and let it erode in our favor.
We'll talk about the flexibility of larger trading accounts next.
Part Four of Six Parts - Next!
There is substantial risk of loss trading futures and options and may not be suitable for all types of investors. Only risk capital should be used.
Thomas Cathey - 27-year trading veteran heads the managed futures division of Thomas Capital Management, LLC. View his TimeLine Trading market predictions and get his complete, free 44+ lesson, "Thomas Commodity Trading Course".
http://www.thomascapitalmanagement.com/commodity/welcome.htm
Main site: http://www.ThomasCapitalManagement.com